The Gap Between Global Tuberculosis Incidence and the First Milestone of the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy: An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Database

OBJECTIVE: The first milestone (in 2020) of the End Tuberculosis (TB) Strategy of the World Health Organization was a 20% reduction in TB incidence rate compared with the 2015 baseline. This study aimed to determine the incidence rate of TB and how it has changed since 2015 at the global, regional, and country levels. METHODS: This study used the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2017 to extract TB incidence rates at the global, regional, and country levels. The annual percentage change in the incidence rate (APCIR) of TB based on 2015 was calculated to evaluate the trend in the changes at various levels, including globally and at the regional and country levels. An APCIR of –4% from 2015 to 2020 is considered acceptable. RESULTS: The global APCIR was only –1.1% from 2015 to 2017. Only 2 of the 21 analyzed regions had APCIRs lower than –4%: Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe. Worse still, six regions exhibited increasing TB incidence rates. At the country level, although 143 of 195 countries and territories showed reductions in TB incidence rates, the APCIR was lower than –4% in only 11 of them. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that it will be difficult to achieve the 2020 incidence rate milestone of the End Tuberculosis Strategy. This indicates the need to design and implement suitable strategies to address the current situation in order to achieve the next milestone and targets of the End Tuberculosis Strategy.