Is a simplified TNM staging system more clinically relevant than the American Joint Committee on Cancer system for the follicular variant of papillary thyroid cancer?

BACKGROUND: Despite the recent release of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging manual, risk stratification for the follicular variant of papillary thyroid cancer (FVPTC), which is the second common variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) after classical PTC, remains controversial. This study aimed to develop a more accurate and relevant staging system specifically for FVPTC. METHODS: Patients with FVPTC who were included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) open database between 2010 and 2015 were divided into 47 groups according to their TNM classifications and age. Subsequently, these 47 groups were categorized into appropriate stages based on Kaplan-Meier survival curves, mortality analyses, a Cox proportional hazards model, and clinical considerations. RESULTS: Our retrospective analysis of 17,628 cases yielded the following new staging classification: stage I, defined as age <55 years and any T/N/M or age ≥55 years and T1-3/any N/M0 (n=17,427, 98.85%); stage II, age ≥55 and T4/any N/M0 or age ≥55 and any T/N0/M1 (n=173, 0.99%); and stage III, age ≥55 and any T/N1/M1 (n=28, 0.16%). The overall mortality rates per 1,000-person-years were 4.135 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.653–4.681], 71.193 (95% CI: 51.354–98.697), and 199.744 (95% CI: 115.983–343.997) for our new stages I, II, and III, respectively. The hazard ratios for the new stages II and III (reference: stage I) were 5.081 (95% CI: 3.110–8.301) and 21.690 (95% CI: 11.402–41.258), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the 8th edition of the AJCC staging system, our newly proposed system provided more accurate risk stratification for patients with FVPTC, as demonstrated by actual survival and mortality outcomes. This new model may thus help guide more personalized treatment for these patients.