Association of heart rate trajectories with the risk of adverse outcomes in a community-based cohort in Taiwan

Heart rate trajectory patterns integrate information regarding multiple heart rate measurements and their changes with time. Different heart rate patterns may exist in one population, and these are associated with different outcomes. Our study investigated the association of adverse outcomes with heart rate trajectory patterns. This was a prospective cohort study based on the Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Cohort in Taiwan. A total of 3,015 Chinese community residents aged > 35 years were enrolled in a prospective investigation of cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes from 1990 to 2013.The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was a composite of coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular accidents. The following trajectory patterns were identified: stable, 61%; decreased, 5%; mildly increased, 32%; and markedly increased, 2%. During follow-up (median, 13.9 years), 557 participants died and 217 experienced secondary outcomes. The adjusted hazard ratios of primary and secondary outcomes for participants with a markedly increased trajectory pattern were 1.80 (95% CI [1.18–2.76]) and 1.45 (95% CI [0.67–3.12]), respectively, compared to those for participants with a stable trajectory pattern. A markedly increased heart rate trajectory pattern may be associated with all-cause mortality risks. Heart rate trajectory patterns demonstrated the utility of repeated heart rate measurements for risk assessment.