Influenza risk perception and travel-related health protection behavior in the US: Insights for the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak

Influenza is a contagious virus affecting both one's health and economic productivity. This study evaluates uses a survey of 2168 individuals across the U.S. Ordered logit regressions are used to model risk perception and generalized ordered logit regressions are used to model risk mitigation travel-related decisions. Models are estimated for three influenza outbreak scenarios, specifically an individual's travel-related: 1) risk perceptions, 2) risk mitigation decisions when infected and the individual wants to prevent spreading it, and may want treatment, and 3) risk mitigation decisions when not infected and the individual wants to reduce exposure. Risk perception results show that a recent personal experience with influenza-like symptoms and being female significantly increased risk perception at mandatory and medical trip locations. Risk mitigation model results show that males are less likely to alter their travel patterns in response to the possible spreading of the virus or increasing exposure. Knowing the difference between influenza and the stomach flu is more influential in reducing travel than a recent influenza experience in one's household. Individuals proactive with their health (i.e., receive the vaccine, have health insurance) are also proactive in seeking medical attention and reducing influenza spread. Lastly, aligned with the Protection Motivation Theory, individuals reduce travel to locations in which they perceived medium or high risk. However, increased risk perceived at one's work location did not significantly reduce travel. The findings provide insight into the risk perception and mitigation behavior of the American public during the COVID-19 pandemic and after restrictions are lifted.