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Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030
BACKGROUND: This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030. METHODS: Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burd...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
AME Publishing Company
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7215038/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32420123 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tau.2020.02.23 |
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author | Cai, Qiliang Chen, Yegang Qi, Xingdi Zhang, Dingrong Pan, Jiancheng Xie, Zunke Xu, Chenjie Li, Shu Zhang, Xinyu Gao, Ying Hou, Jie Guo, Xuemei Zhou, Xiaodong Zhang, Baoshuai Ma, Fei Zhang, Wei Lin, Guiting Xin, Zhongcheng Niu, Yuanjie Wang, Yaogang |
author_facet | Cai, Qiliang Chen, Yegang Qi, Xingdi Zhang, Dingrong Pan, Jiancheng Xie, Zunke Xu, Chenjie Li, Shu Zhang, Xinyu Gao, Ying Hou, Jie Guo, Xuemei Zhou, Xiaodong Zhang, Baoshuai Ma, Fei Zhang, Wei Lin, Guiting Xin, Zhongcheng Niu, Yuanjie Wang, Yaogang |
author_sort | Cai, Qiliang |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030. METHODS: Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0). RESULTS: Globally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759–349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335–136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81–5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93–2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7215038 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | AME Publishing Company |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72150382020-05-15 Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 Cai, Qiliang Chen, Yegang Qi, Xingdi Zhang, Dingrong Pan, Jiancheng Xie, Zunke Xu, Chenjie Li, Shu Zhang, Xinyu Gao, Ying Hou, Jie Guo, Xuemei Zhou, Xiaodong Zhang, Baoshuai Ma, Fei Zhang, Wei Lin, Guiting Xin, Zhongcheng Niu, Yuanjie Wang, Yaogang Transl Androl Urol Original Article BACKGROUND: This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030. METHODS: Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0). RESULTS: Globally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759–349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335–136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81–5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93–2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. AME Publishing Company 2020-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7215038/ /pubmed/32420123 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tau.2020.02.23 Text en 2020 Translational Andrology and Urology. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Article Cai, Qiliang Chen, Yegang Qi, Xingdi Zhang, Dingrong Pan, Jiancheng Xie, Zunke Xu, Chenjie Li, Shu Zhang, Xinyu Gao, Ying Hou, Jie Guo, Xuemei Zhou, Xiaodong Zhang, Baoshuai Ma, Fei Zhang, Wei Lin, Guiting Xin, Zhongcheng Niu, Yuanjie Wang, Yaogang Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title | Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title_full | Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title_fullStr | Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title_full_unstemmed | Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title_short | Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
title_sort | temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030 |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7215038/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32420123 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tau.2020.02.23 |
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