Impact of cigarette price increase on health and financing outcomes in Vietnam

Background: Vietnam had about 15 million male smokers in 2015. To reduce adult tobacco use in Vietnam through an increase in the excise tax of cigarettes, we conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to examine the impact of two scenarios of cigarette price increases. Methods: We estimated, across income quintiles, the life-years gained, treatment cost averted, number of men avoiding catastrophic health expenditure and extreme poverty, and additional tax revenue under a 32% and a 62% increase in cigarette price through increased excise tax. We considered only male smokers as they constitute majority of the smokers. We used the average price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Vietnam of -0.53. Results: Under both scenarios of price increase, men in the poorest quintile would gain about 2.8 times the life-years and avert 2.5 times the treatment cost averted by the richest quintile. With a 32% price increase, about 285,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure; as a result, about 95,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. In contrast to the distribution of health benefits, the extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 1.2 times that from the poorest quintile. With a 62% price increase, about 553,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure, and about 183,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. The extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 3.8 times that from the poorest quintile. Conclusions: Higher cigarette prices would particularly benefit the poorest income quintile of Vietnamese, in terms of health and financial outcomes. Thus, tobacco taxes are an effective way to improve health and reduce poverty in Vietnam.