How time horizons of autocrats impact health expenditure: a mixed methods research

BACKGROUND: A country’s spending on healthcare significantly improves its population health status. No comparative study has examined how the threat perceived by leaders influences health expenditure and cross-national analyses of authoritarian regimes. The objectives of this study are to examine how time horizons of autocrats influence health expenditure. METHODS: We designed a mixed methods research approach. First, the study used panel data from 1995 to 2010 covering 95 countries (n = 1208) and applied fixed effects regression models. As a proxy for time horizons, the study generated the predicted survival time for each regime-year using parametric survival analysis and the predictors to model regime failure. Second, we chose Chad, Rwanda and Ivory Coast to apply synthetic control methods for comparative case studies. Armed conflict had significant effects on regime duration and was used for an intervention. We constructed a synthetic version of each country, combining counties that did not or did experience armed conflict to resemble the values of health expenditure predictors for the actual country prior to the intervention. RESULTS: We found that an increase in the natural log form of survival time by 1 resulted in a 1.14 percentage point increase in health expenditure (% of GDP) (1.14, 95% CI = 0.60–1.69). Furthermore, we found that the difference in health expenditure between the actual Chad and its synthetic version starts to grow following the civil war in 2004 (in 2004, actual: 5.72%, synthetic: 5.91%; in 2005, actual: 3.91%, synthetic: 6.74%). Similarly, a large health expenditure gap between the actual Rwanda and its synthetic control resulted after the peace deal was signed in 2002 (in 2002, actual: 4.18%, synthetic: 4.77%; in 2003, actual: 6.34%, synthetic: 5.03%). In Ivory Coast, the two series diverge substantially during the civil war from 1999 to 2005 (in 1998, actual: 7.30%, synthetic: 7.11%; in 2002, actual: 4.47%, synthetic: 7.43%; in 2007, actual: 6.35%, synthetic: 6.50%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that health expenditure decreases as regime time horizons shrink, and reducing armed conflict is a way to promote regime stability.