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Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks

The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow us to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e., diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in locally treelike topologies. This success has suggested t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Castellano, Claudio, Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Physical Society 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217544/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.98.052313
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author Castellano, Claudio
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo
author_facet Castellano, Claudio
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo
author_sort Castellano, Claudio
collection PubMed
description The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow us to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e., diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in locally treelike topologies. This success has suggested the application of the same approach to recurrent-state epidemics, for which an individual can contract the epidemic and recover repeatedly. The underlying assumption is that backtracking paths (i.e., an individual is reinfected by a neighbor he or she previously infected) do not play a relevant role. In this paper we show that this is not the case for recurrent-state epidemics since the neglect of backtracking paths leads to a formula for the epidemic threshold that is qualitatively incorrect in the large size limit. Moreover, we define a modified recurrent-state dynamics which explicitly forbids direct backtracking events and show that this modification completely upsets the phenomenology.
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spelling pubmed-72175442020-05-13 Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks Castellano, Claudio Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo Phys Rev E Articles The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow us to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e., diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in locally treelike topologies. This success has suggested the application of the same approach to recurrent-state epidemics, for which an individual can contract the epidemic and recover repeatedly. The underlying assumption is that backtracking paths (i.e., an individual is reinfected by a neighbor he or she previously infected) do not play a relevant role. In this paper we show that this is not the case for recurrent-state epidemics since the neglect of backtracking paths leads to a formula for the epidemic threshold that is qualitatively incorrect in the large size limit. Moreover, we define a modified recurrent-state dynamics which explicitly forbids direct backtracking events and show that this modification completely upsets the phenomenology. American Physical Society 2018-11-27 2018-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7217544/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.98.052313 Text en ©2018 American Physical Society This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source.
spellingShingle Articles
Castellano, Claudio
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo
Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title_full Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title_fullStr Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title_full_unstemmed Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title_short Relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
title_sort relevance of backtracking paths in recurrent-state epidemic spreading on networks
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217544/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.98.052313
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