On the Effectiveness of Sexual Offender Treatment in Prisons: A Comparison of Two Different Evaluation Designs in Routine Practice

Although there is less continuity of sexual offending in the life course than stereotypes suggest, treatment should lead to a further reduction of reoffending. Contrary to this aim, a recent large British study using propensity score matching (PSM) showed some negative effects of the core sex offender treatment program (SOTP) in prisons. International meta-analyses on the effects of sex offender treatment revealed that there is considerable variety in the results, and methodological aspects and the context play a significant role. Therefore, this study compared different designs in the evaluation of sex offender treatment in German prisons. PSM was compared with an exact matching (EM) by the Static-99 in a sample of 693 sex offenders from Bavarian prisons. Most results were similar for both methods and not significant due to low base rates. There was a treatment effect at p < .05 on general recidivism in the EM and at p = .06 on serious reoffending in the PSM. For sexual recidivism, EM showed a negative trend, whereas PSM suggested the opposite. Overall, the study underlines the need for more replications of evaluations of routine practice, methodological comparisons, sensitive outcome criteria, and differentiated policy information.