Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 1...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jit, Mark, Jombart, Thibaut, Nightingale, Emily S, Endo, Akira, Abbott, Sam, Edmunds, W John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020
Materias:
Rapid Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219029/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32400358
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
Descripción
Sumario:An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

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