Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 1...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jit, Mark, Jombart, Thibaut, Nightingale, Emily S, Endo, Akira, Abbott, Sam, Edmunds, W John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020
Materias:
Rapid Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219029/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32400358
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
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author Jit, Mark
Jombart, Thibaut
Nightingale, Emily S
Endo, Akira
Abbott, Sam
Edmunds, W John
author_facet Jit, Mark
Jombart, Thibaut
Nightingale, Emily S
Endo, Akira
Abbott, Sam
Edmunds, W John
author_sort Jit, Mark
collection PubMed
description An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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spelling pubmed-72190292020-05-15 Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020 Jit, Mark Jombart, Thibaut Nightingale, Emily S Endo, Akira Abbott, Sam Edmunds, W John Euro Surveill Rapid Communication An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020-05-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7219029/ /pubmed/32400358 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632 Text en This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2020. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Rapid Communication
Jit, Mark
Jombart, Thibaut
Nightingale, Emily S
Endo, Akira
Abbott, Sam
Edmunds, W John
Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title_full Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title_fullStr Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title_full_unstemmed Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title_short Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
title_sort estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (covid-19) using critical care admissions, united kingdom, february to march 2020
topic Rapid Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219029/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32400358
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
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