Nomogram for prediction of pathologic complete remission using biomarker expression and endoscopic finding after preoperative chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop a nomogram for prediction of pathologic complete remission (pCR) after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for rectal cancer. METHODS: mRNA expression levels of seven molecular markers [p53, p21, Ki-67, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), CD133, CD24, CD44] were measured by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in 120 rectal cancers. Endoscopic findings of clinical complete remission (cCR) and biologic variables were used to construct nomogram in the training group (n=80), which was validated in the validation group (n=40). RESULTS: mRNA expression levels of four markers (p53, p21, Ki67, CD133) correlated with pCR (24/80, 30.0%) in the training group. Low expression of p53 and/or high expression of p21, Ki67 and CD133 showed greater pCR rate. pCR was shown in 18 (69.2%) of 26 cases showing endoscopic cCR in the training group. Higher pCR rate was demonstrated in lower tumor location than middle tumor (19/49, 38.8% vs. 5/31, 16.1%). A nomogram for prediction of pCR was developed from the multivariate prediction model using these six variables, which showed good discrimination ability in the training group [area under the curve (AUC)=0.945] and validation group (AUC=0.922). The calibration plot showed good agreement between actual and predicted pCR in both patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Nomogram for assessment of pCR can be useful for making treatment decisions after CRT according to predicted responses.