Predictive model for the diagnosis of benign/malignant small pulmonary nodules

There is some doubt that all nodules <8 mm are really mainly benign and that simple follow-up is adequate in all cases. The purpose of this study is to create a predictive model for the diagnosis of benign and malignant small pulmonary nodules. This was a retrospective case–control study of patients who had undergone pulmonary nodule resection at the Zhejiang University Jinhua Hospital. Patients with pulmonary nodules of ≤10 mm in size on chest high-resolution computed tomography were included. Patients’ demographic characteristics, clinical features, and high-resolution computed tomography findings were collected. Logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analysis were used to create a predictive model for malignancy. A total of 216 patients were included: 160 with malignant and 56 with benign nodules. Nodule density (odds ratio [OR] = 0.996, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.993–0.998, P = .001), vascular penetration sign (OR = 3.49, 95% CI: 1.39–8.76, P = .008), nodule type (OR = 4.27, 95% CI: 1.48–12.29, P = .007), and incisure surrounding nodules (OR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.04–0.84, P = .03) were independently associated with malignant nodules. These factors were used to create a mathematical model that had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.744. Using a cut-off of 0.762 resulted in 63.1% sensitivity and 75.0% specificity. This study proposes a pulmonary nodule prediction model that can estimate benign/malignant lung nodules with good sensitivity and specificity. Mixed ground-glass nodules, vascular penetration sign, density of lung nodules, and the absence of incisure signs are independently associated with malignant lung nodules.