Subjective expectations for future and mortality among middle-aged and older adults

The purpose of this study is to categorize various elements for the expectations for the future using factor analysis and identify association between categories of the subjective expectations for the future and mortality among middle-aged and older adults. Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging from 2006 to 2016 was assessed using longitudinal data analysis and 9,844 research subjects were included at baseline in 2006. Our modeling approach was based on Cox proportional hazards models for mortality. We indicated 3 categories (individual factor, national factor, and combined factor) of 12 subjective expectations for the future using factor analysis. The negative expectations for the future of all factors [individual factor: hazard ratio (HR), 1.65, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41–1.93; national factor: HR, 1.20, 95% CI, 1.06–1.37; combined factor: HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.32] were more likely to have an increased risk of all-cause mortality than those in the positive expectations for the future. Older adults were more likely to be affected by negative expectations for the future in national factor compared to middle-aged adults (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.05–1.41). Increasing positive expectations for the future is an important consideration for improvement in health. Policy makers need to consider that changes of national policy would affect health in older adults.