Predicting sporadic Alzheimer’s disease progression via inherited Alzheimer’s disease-informed machine-learning

INTRODUCTION: Developing cross-validated multi-biomarker models for the prediction of the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a critical yet unmet clinical challenge. METHODS: We applied support vector regression to AD biomarkers derived from cerebrospinal fluid, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), amyloid-PET and fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography (FDG-PET) to predict rates of cognitive decline. Prediction models were trained in autosomal-dominant Alzheimer’s disease (ADAD, n = 121) and subsequently cross-validated in sporadic prodromal AD (n = 216). The sample size needed to detect treatment effects when using model-based risk enrichment was estimated. RESULTS: A model combining all biomarker modalities and established in ADAD predicted the 4-year rate of decline in global cognition (R(2) = 24%) and memory (R(2) =25%) in sporadic AD. Model-based risk-enrichment reduced the sample size required for detecting simulated intervention effects by 50%–75%. DISCUSSION: Our independently validated machine-learning model predicted cognitive decline in sporadic prodromal AD and may substantially reduce sample size needed in clinical trials in AD.