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Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infecte...

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Autores principales: Salje, Henrik, Tran Kiem, Cécile, Lefrancq, Noémie, Courtejoie, Noémie, Bosetti, Paolo, Paireau, Juliette, Andronico, Alessio, Hozé, Nathanaël, Richet, Jehanne, Dubost, Claire-Lise, Le Strat, Yann, Lessler, Justin, Levy-Bruhl, Daniel, Fontanet, Arnaud, Opatowski, Lulla, Boelle, Pierre-Yves, Cauchemez, Simon
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7223792/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404476
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3517
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author Salje, Henrik
Tran Kiem, Cécile
Lefrancq, Noémie
Courtejoie, Noémie
Bosetti, Paolo
Paireau, Juliette
Andronico, Alessio
Hozé, Nathanaël
Richet, Jehanne
Dubost, Claire-Lise
Le Strat, Yann
Lessler, Justin
Levy-Bruhl, Daniel
Fontanet, Arnaud
Opatowski, Lulla
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
Cauchemez, Simon
author_facet Salje, Henrik
Tran Kiem, Cécile
Lefrancq, Noémie
Courtejoie, Noémie
Bosetti, Paolo
Paireau, Juliette
Andronico, Alessio
Hozé, Nathanaël
Richet, Jehanne
Dubost, Claire-Lise
Le Strat, Yann
Lessler, Justin
Levy-Bruhl, Daniel
Fontanet, Arnaud
Opatowski, Lulla
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
Cauchemez, Simon
author_sort Salje, Henrik
collection PubMed
description France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
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spelling pubmed-72237922020-05-21 Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France Salje, Henrik Tran Kiem, Cécile Lefrancq, Noémie Courtejoie, Noémie Bosetti, Paolo Paireau, Juliette Andronico, Alessio Hozé, Nathanaël Richet, Jehanne Dubost, Claire-Lise Le Strat, Yann Lessler, Justin Levy-Bruhl, Daniel Fontanet, Arnaud Opatowski, Lulla Boelle, Pierre-Yves Cauchemez, Simon Science Reports France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-07-10 2020-05-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7223792/ /pubmed/32404476 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3517 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Reports
Salje, Henrik
Tran Kiem, Cécile
Lefrancq, Noémie
Courtejoie, Noémie
Bosetti, Paolo
Paireau, Juliette
Andronico, Alessio
Hozé, Nathanaël
Richet, Jehanne
Dubost, Claire-Lise
Le Strat, Yann
Lessler, Justin
Levy-Bruhl, Daniel
Fontanet, Arnaud
Opatowski, Lulla
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
Cauchemez, Simon
Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title_full Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title_fullStr Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title_short Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
title_sort estimating the burden of sars-cov-2 in france
topic Reports
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7223792/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404476
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3517
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