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Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study
BACKGROUND: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this ta...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Environmental Health Perspectives
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228103/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32233878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 |
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author | Kypridemos, Chris Puzzolo, Elisa Aamaas, Borgar Hyseni, Lirije Shupler, Matthew Aunan, Kristin Pope, Daniel |
author_facet | Kypridemos, Chris Puzzolo, Elisa Aamaas, Borgar Hyseni, Lirije Shupler, Matthew Aunan, Kristin Pope, Daniel |
author_sort | Kypridemos, Chris |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) deaths and 770,000 ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of [Formula: see text] in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be [Formula: see text] in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7228103 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Environmental Health Perspectives |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72281032020-05-18 Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study Kypridemos, Chris Puzzolo, Elisa Aamaas, Borgar Hyseni, Lirije Shupler, Matthew Aunan, Kristin Pope, Daniel Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) deaths and 770,000 ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of [Formula: see text] in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be [Formula: see text] in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 Environmental Health Perspectives 2020-04-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7228103/ /pubmed/32233878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 Text en https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/about-ehp/license EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted. |
spellingShingle | Research Kypridemos, Chris Puzzolo, Elisa Aamaas, Borgar Hyseni, Lirije Shupler, Matthew Aunan, Kristin Pope, Daniel Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title | Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title_full | Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title_fullStr | Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title_short | Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study |
title_sort | health and climate impacts of scaling adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (lpg) for clean household cooking in cameroon: a modeling study |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228103/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32233878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 |
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