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Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics

OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and...

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Autores principales: Kennedy, Deanna M., Zambrano, Gustavo José, Wang, Yiyu, Neto, Osmar Pinto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228692/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32425658
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440
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author Kennedy, Deanna M.
Zambrano, Gustavo José
Wang, Yiyu
Neto, Osmar Pinto
author_facet Kennedy, Deanna M.
Zambrano, Gustavo José
Wang, Yiyu
Neto, Osmar Pinto
author_sort Kennedy, Deanna M.
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %). RESULTS: The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures). CONCLUSION: If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available.
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spelling pubmed-72286922020-05-18 Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics Kennedy, Deanna M. Zambrano, Gustavo José Wang, Yiyu Neto, Osmar Pinto J Clin Virol Article OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %). RESULTS: The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures). CONCLUSION: If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available. Elsevier B.V. 2020-07 2020-05-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7228692/ /pubmed/32425658 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Kennedy, Deanna M.
Zambrano, Gustavo José
Wang, Yiyu
Neto, Osmar Pinto
Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title_full Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title_fullStr Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title_short Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
title_sort modeling the effects of intervention strategies on covid-19 transmission dynamics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228692/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32425658
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440
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