Cargando…
Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and...
Autores principales: | , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228692/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32425658 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440 |
_version_ | 1783534621355409408 |
---|---|
author | Kennedy, Deanna M. Zambrano, Gustavo José Wang, Yiyu Neto, Osmar Pinto |
author_facet | Kennedy, Deanna M. Zambrano, Gustavo José Wang, Yiyu Neto, Osmar Pinto |
author_sort | Kennedy, Deanna M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %). RESULTS: The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures). CONCLUSION: If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7228692 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72286922020-05-18 Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics Kennedy, Deanna M. Zambrano, Gustavo José Wang, Yiyu Neto, Osmar Pinto J Clin Virol Article OBJECTIVES: To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %). RESULTS: The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures). CONCLUSION: If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available. Elsevier B.V. 2020-07 2020-05-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7228692/ /pubmed/32425658 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Kennedy, Deanna M. Zambrano, Gustavo José Wang, Yiyu Neto, Osmar Pinto Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title | Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title_full | Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title_fullStr | Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title_short | Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics |
title_sort | modeling the effects of intervention strategies on covid-19 transmission dynamics |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228692/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32425658 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kennedydeannam modelingtheeffectsofinterventionstrategiesoncovid19transmissiondynamics AT zambranogustavojose modelingtheeffectsofinterventionstrategiesoncovid19transmissiondynamics AT wangyiyu modelingtheeffectsofinterventionstrategiesoncovid19transmissiondynamics AT netoosmarpinto modelingtheeffectsofinterventionstrategiesoncovid19transmissiondynamics |