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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented in...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239080/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708 |
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author | Kraemer, Moritz U.G. Yang, Chia-Hung Gutierrez, Bernardo Wu, Chieh-Hsi Klein, Brennan Pigott, David M. du Plessis, Louis Faria, Nuno R. Li, Ruoran Hanage, William P. Brownstein, John S. Layan, Maylis Vespignani, Alessandro Tian, Huaiyu Dye, Christopher Cauchemez, Simon Pybus, Oliver G. Scarpino, Samuel V. |
author_facet | Kraemer, Moritz U.G. Yang, Chia-Hung Gutierrez, Bernardo Wu, Chieh-Hsi Klein, Brennan Pigott, David M. du Plessis, Louis Faria, Nuno R. Li, Ruoran Hanage, William P. Brownstein, John S. Layan, Maylis Vespignani, Alessandro Tian, Huaiyu Dye, Christopher Cauchemez, Simon Pybus, Oliver G. Scarpino, Samuel V. |
author_sort | Kraemer, Moritz U.G. |
collection | PubMed |
description | The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7239080 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72390802020-06-07 The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China Kraemer, Moritz U.G. Yang, Chia-Hung Gutierrez, Bernardo Wu, Chieh-Hsi Klein, Brennan Pigott, David M. du Plessis, Louis Faria, Nuno R. Li, Ruoran Hanage, William P. Brownstein, John S. Layan, Maylis Vespignani, Alessandro Tian, Huaiyu Dye, Christopher Cauchemez, Simon Pybus, Oliver G. Scarpino, Samuel V. medRxiv Article The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-03-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7239080/ /pubmed/32511452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708 Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Kraemer, Moritz U.G. Yang, Chia-Hung Gutierrez, Bernardo Wu, Chieh-Hsi Klein, Brennan Pigott, David M. du Plessis, Louis Faria, Nuno R. Li, Ruoran Hanage, William P. Brownstein, John S. Layan, Maylis Vespignani, Alessandro Tian, Huaiyu Dye, Christopher Cauchemez, Simon Pybus, Oliver G. Scarpino, Samuel V. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title | The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title_full | The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title_fullStr | The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title_full_unstemmed | The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title_short | The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
title_sort | effect of human mobility and control measures on the covid-19 epidemic in china |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239080/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708 |
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