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Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study

BACKGROUND: This study aims to develop functional nomograms to predict specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival (OS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: CRC case data were retrospectively recruited from a large population‐based public dataset. Nomograms were developed to pred...

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Autores principales: Mo, Shaobo, Cai, Xin, Zhou, Zheng, Li, Yaqi, Hu, Xiang, Ma, Xiaoji, Zhang, Long, Cai, Sanjun, Peng, Junjie
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7240852/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32508027
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ctm2.20
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author Mo, Shaobo
Cai, Xin
Zhou, Zheng
Li, Yaqi
Hu, Xiang
Ma, Xiaoji
Zhang, Long
Cai, Sanjun
Peng, Junjie
author_facet Mo, Shaobo
Cai, Xin
Zhou, Zheng
Li, Yaqi
Hu, Xiang
Ma, Xiaoji
Zhang, Long
Cai, Sanjun
Peng, Junjie
author_sort Mo, Shaobo
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: This study aims to develop functional nomograms to predict specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival (OS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: CRC case data were retrospectively recruited from a large population‐based public dataset. Nomograms were developed to predict the probabilities of specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. The performance of nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index (C‐index), calibration curves, area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 142 343 cases were included in the current study. On the basis of univariate and multivariate analyses, clinicopathological features were correlated with specific distant metastatic sites and survival outcomes and were used to establish nomograms. The nomograms showed excellent accuracy in predicting specific distant metastatic sites. The C‐indexes for the prediction of liver, lung, bone, and brain metastases were 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81‐0.83), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78‐0.81), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79‐0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72‐0.84), respectively. Then, a prognostic nomogram integrating clinicopathological features and specific distant metastatic sites was established to predict 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year OS of CRC, with AUCs of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.741‐0.783), 0.762 (95% CI, 0.745‐0.781), and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.730‐0.761), respectively. DCA showed that the prognostic nomogram had a better clinical application value than current TNM staging system. CONCLUSIONS: Based on clinicopathological features, original nomograms were constructed for clinicians to predict specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. These models could help to support the postoperative personalized assessment.
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spelling pubmed-72408522020-06-01 Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study Mo, Shaobo Cai, Xin Zhou, Zheng Li, Yaqi Hu, Xiang Ma, Xiaoji Zhang, Long Cai, Sanjun Peng, Junjie Clin Transl Med Research Articles BACKGROUND: This study aims to develop functional nomograms to predict specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival (OS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: CRC case data were retrospectively recruited from a large population‐based public dataset. Nomograms were developed to predict the probabilities of specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. The performance of nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index (C‐index), calibration curves, area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 142 343 cases were included in the current study. On the basis of univariate and multivariate analyses, clinicopathological features were correlated with specific distant metastatic sites and survival outcomes and were used to establish nomograms. The nomograms showed excellent accuracy in predicting specific distant metastatic sites. The C‐indexes for the prediction of liver, lung, bone, and brain metastases were 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81‐0.83), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78‐0.81), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79‐0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72‐0.84), respectively. Then, a prognostic nomogram integrating clinicopathological features and specific distant metastatic sites was established to predict 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year OS of CRC, with AUCs of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.741‐0.783), 0.762 (95% CI, 0.745‐0.781), and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.730‐0.761), respectively. DCA showed that the prognostic nomogram had a better clinical application value than current TNM staging system. CONCLUSIONS: Based on clinicopathological features, original nomograms were constructed for clinicians to predict specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. These models could help to support the postoperative personalized assessment. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-04-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7240852/ /pubmed/32508027 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ctm2.20 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Shanghai Institute of Clinical Bioinformatics This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Mo, Shaobo
Cai, Xin
Zhou, Zheng
Li, Yaqi
Hu, Xiang
Ma, Xiaoji
Zhang, Long
Cai, Sanjun
Peng, Junjie
Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title_full Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title_fullStr Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title_full_unstemmed Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title_short Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study
title_sort nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: a large population‐based real‐world study
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7240852/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32508027
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ctm2.20
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