Data-based selection of creep constitutive models for high-Cr heat-resistant steel

There are two types of creep constitutive equation, one with a steady-state term (steady-state type) and the other with no steady-state term (non-steady-state type). We applied the Bayesian inference framework in order to examine which type is supported by experimental creep curves for a Grade 91 (Gr.91) steel. The Bayesian free energy was significantly lower for the steady-state type under all the test conditions in the ranges of 50–90 MPa at 923 K, 90–160 MPa at 873 K and 170–240 MPa at 823 K, leading to the conclusion that the posterior probability was virtually 1.0. These findings mean that the experimental data supported the steady-state-type equation. The dependence of the evaluated steady-state creep rate on the applied stress indicates that there is a transition in the mechanism governing creep deformation around 120 MPa.