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Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China

Health-risk assessments of temperature are central to determine total non-accidental human mortality; however, few studies have investigated the effect of temperature on accidental human mortality. We performed a time-series study combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to quantify t...

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Autores principales: Lian, Tingyu, Fu, Yingbin, Sun, Mingwei, Yin, Mingjuan, Zhang, Yan, Huang, Lingfeng, Huang, Jingxiao, Xu, Ziqian, Mao, Chen, Ni, Jindong, Liu, Gang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7242478/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32439880
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65344-y
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author Lian, Tingyu
Fu, Yingbin
Sun, Mingwei
Yin, Mingjuan
Zhang, Yan
Huang, Lingfeng
Huang, Jingxiao
Xu, Ziqian
Mao, Chen
Ni, Jindong
Liu, Gang
author_facet Lian, Tingyu
Fu, Yingbin
Sun, Mingwei
Yin, Mingjuan
Zhang, Yan
Huang, Lingfeng
Huang, Jingxiao
Xu, Ziqian
Mao, Chen
Ni, Jindong
Liu, Gang
author_sort Lian, Tingyu
collection PubMed
description Health-risk assessments of temperature are central to determine total non-accidental human mortality; however, few studies have investigated the effect of temperature on accidental human mortality. We performed a time-series study combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of daily mean temperature on accidental human mortality between 2013 and 2017 in Shenzhen, China. The threshold for effects of temperature on accidental human mortality occurred between 5.6 °C and 18.5 °C. Cold exposures, but not hot exposures, were significantly associated with accidental human mortality. All of the observed groups were susceptible to cold effects, with the strongest effects presented in females (relative risk [RR]: 3.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.44–6.84]), followed by poorly educated people (RR: 2.63, 95% CI [1.59–4.36]), males (RR: 1.79, 95% CI [1.10–2.92]), and well-educated people (RR: 1.20, 95% CI [0.58–2.51]). Pooled estimates for cold effects at a lag of 0–21 days (d) were also stronger than hot effects at a lag of 0–2 d. Our results indicate that low temperatures increased the risk of accidental human mortality. Females and poorly educated people were more susceptible to the low temperatures. These findings imply that interventions which target vulnerable populations during cold days should be developed to reduce accidental human mortality risk.
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spelling pubmed-72424782020-05-30 Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China Lian, Tingyu Fu, Yingbin Sun, Mingwei Yin, Mingjuan Zhang, Yan Huang, Lingfeng Huang, Jingxiao Xu, Ziqian Mao, Chen Ni, Jindong Liu, Gang Sci Rep Article Health-risk assessments of temperature are central to determine total non-accidental human mortality; however, few studies have investigated the effect of temperature on accidental human mortality. We performed a time-series study combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of daily mean temperature on accidental human mortality between 2013 and 2017 in Shenzhen, China. The threshold for effects of temperature on accidental human mortality occurred between 5.6 °C and 18.5 °C. Cold exposures, but not hot exposures, were significantly associated with accidental human mortality. All of the observed groups were susceptible to cold effects, with the strongest effects presented in females (relative risk [RR]: 3.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.44–6.84]), followed by poorly educated people (RR: 2.63, 95% CI [1.59–4.36]), males (RR: 1.79, 95% CI [1.10–2.92]), and well-educated people (RR: 1.20, 95% CI [0.58–2.51]). Pooled estimates for cold effects at a lag of 0–21 days (d) were also stronger than hot effects at a lag of 0–2 d. Our results indicate that low temperatures increased the risk of accidental human mortality. Females and poorly educated people were more susceptible to the low temperatures. These findings imply that interventions which target vulnerable populations during cold days should be developed to reduce accidental human mortality risk. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-05-21 /pmc/articles/PMC7242478/ /pubmed/32439880 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65344-y Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Lian, Tingyu
Fu, Yingbin
Sun, Mingwei
Yin, Mingjuan
Zhang, Yan
Huang, Lingfeng
Huang, Jingxiao
Xu, Ziqian
Mao, Chen
Ni, Jindong
Liu, Gang
Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title_full Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title_fullStr Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title_full_unstemmed Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title_short Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China
title_sort effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: a time-series analysis in shenzhen, guangdong province in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7242478/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32439880
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65344-y
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