On the importance of population-based serological surveys of SARS-CoV-2 without overlooking their inherent uncertainties

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health situation and more than ever it is important to be well informed on methods to monitor and analyse the progression of the epidemic. This brief note aims to explain the scope in conducting large-scale serological surveys of SARS-CoV-2 to define the landscape of population immunity, without overlooking the inherent uncertainty steaming from sampling design and diagnostic validity. The note completes with a succinct appendix of simple statistical methods for estimating prevalence from random population samples using imperfect diagnostic tests.