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Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study p...

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Autores principales: Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina I., Gayawan, Ezra
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7246526/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32353991
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093054
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author Adegboye, Oyelola A.
Adekunle, Adeshina I.
Gayawan, Ezra
author_facet Adegboye, Oyelola A.
Adekunle, Adeshina I.
Gayawan, Ezra
author_sort Adegboye, Oyelola A.
collection PubMed
description On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28–15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65–8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83–7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.
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spelling pubmed-72465262020-06-11 Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria Adegboye, Oyelola A. Adekunle, Adeshina I. Gayawan, Ezra Int J Environ Res Public Health Article On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28–15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65–8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83–7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission. MDPI 2020-04-28 2020-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7246526/ /pubmed/32353991 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093054 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Adegboye, Oyelola A.
Adekunle, Adeshina I.
Gayawan, Ezra
Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title_full Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title_fullStr Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title_short Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
title_sort early transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (covid-19) in nigeria
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7246526/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32353991
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093054
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