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A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations

The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact and conceive interaction. Due to geographical, behavioral, or...

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Autores principales: Contreras, Sebastián, Villavicencio, H. Andrés, Medina-Ortiz, David, Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo, Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247502/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32501373
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109925
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author Contreras, Sebastián
Villavicencio, H. Andrés
Medina-Ortiz, David
Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo
Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro
author_facet Contreras, Sebastián
Villavicencio, H. Andrés
Medina-Ortiz, David
Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo
Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro
author_sort Contreras, Sebastián
collection PubMed
description The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact and conceive interaction. Due to geographical, behavioral, or economic factors, different sub-groups among a population are more (or less) likely to interact, and thus to spread/acquire the virus. In this work, we present a general multi-group SEIRA model for representing the spread of COVID-19 among a heterogeneous population and test it in a numerical case of study. By highlighting its applicability and the ease with which its general formulation can be adapted to particular studies, we expect our model to lead us to a better understanding of the evolution of this pandemic and to better public-health policies to control it.
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spelling pubmed-72475022020-05-26 A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations Contreras, Sebastián Villavicencio, H. Andrés Medina-Ortiz, David Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact and conceive interaction. Due to geographical, behavioral, or economic factors, different sub-groups among a population are more (or less) likely to interact, and thus to spread/acquire the virus. In this work, we present a general multi-group SEIRA model for representing the spread of COVID-19 among a heterogeneous population and test it in a numerical case of study. By highlighting its applicability and the ease with which its general formulation can be adapted to particular studies, we expect our model to lead us to a better understanding of the evolution of this pandemic and to better public-health policies to control it. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-07 2020-05-25 /pmc/articles/PMC7247502/ /pubmed/32501373 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109925 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Contreras, Sebastián
Villavicencio, H. Andrés
Medina-Ortiz, David
Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo
Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro
A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title_full A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title_fullStr A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title_full_unstemmed A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title_short A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations
title_sort multi-group seira model for the spread of covid-19 among heterogeneous populations
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247502/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32501373
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109925
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