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Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and...

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Autores principales: Bertram, Miranda R., Yadav, Shankar, Stenfeldt, Carolina, Delgado, Amy, Arzt, Jonathan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7249781/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32509810
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2020.00276
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author Bertram, Miranda R.
Yadav, Shankar
Stenfeldt, Carolina
Delgado, Amy
Arzt, Jonathan
author_facet Bertram, Miranda R.
Yadav, Shankar
Stenfeldt, Carolina
Delgado, Amy
Arzt, Jonathan
author_sort Bertram, Miranda R.
collection PubMed
description Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.
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spelling pubmed-72497812020-06-05 Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions Bertram, Miranda R. Yadav, Shankar Stenfeldt, Carolina Delgado, Amy Arzt, Jonathan Front Vet Sci Veterinary Science Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection. Frontiers Media S.A. 2020-05-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7249781/ /pubmed/32509810 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2020.00276 Text en Copyright © 2020 Bertram, Yadav, Stenfeldt, Delgado and Arzt. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Veterinary Science
Bertram, Miranda R.
Yadav, Shankar
Stenfeldt, Carolina
Delgado, Amy
Arzt, Jonathan
Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title_full Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title_fullStr Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title_full_unstemmed Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title_short Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions
title_sort extinction dynamics of the foot-and-mouth disease virus carrier state under natural conditions
topic Veterinary Science
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7249781/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32509810
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2020.00276
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