Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Control and Prevention Based on Immigration Population Data in China: Model Development and Validation

BACKGROUND: At the end of February 2020, the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China had drastically slowed and appeared to be under control compared to the peak data in early February of that year. However, the outcomes of COVID-19 control and prevention measures varied between regions (ie, provinces and municipalities) in China; moreover, COVID-19 has become a global pandemic, and the spread of the disease has accelerated in countries outside China. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish valid models to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 control and prevention among various regions in China. These models also targeted regions with control and prevention problems by issuing immediate warnings. METHODS: We built a mathematical model, the Epidemic Risk Time Series Model, and used it to analyze two sets of data, including the daily COVID-19 incidence (ie, newly diagnosed cases) as well as the daily immigration population size. RESULTS: Based on the results of the model evaluation, some regions, such as Shanghai and Zhejiang, were successful in COVID-19 control and prevention, whereas other regions, such as Heilongjiang, yielded poor performance. The evaluation result was highly correlated with the basic reproduction number (R(0)) value, and the result was evaluated in a timely manner at the beginning of the disease outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: The Epidemic Risk Time Series Model was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 control and prevention in different regions in China based on analysis of immigration population data. Compared to other methods, such as R(0), this model enabled more prompt issue of early warnings. This model can be generalized and applied to other countries to evaluate their COVID-19 control and prevention.