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Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States led to nationwide stay-at-home orders and school closures. Declines in energy expenditure resulting from canceled physical education classes and reduced physical activity may elevate childhood obesity risk. This study est...

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Autor principal: An, Ruopeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Shanghai University of Sport 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7250129/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32454174
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2020.05.006
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author An, Ruopeng
author_facet An, Ruopeng
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description PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States led to nationwide stay-at-home orders and school closures. Declines in energy expenditure resulting from canceled physical education classes and reduced physical activity may elevate childhood obesity risk. This study estimated the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity. METHODS: A microsimulation model simulated the trajectory of a nationally representative kindergarten cohort's body mass index z-scores and childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control scenario without COVID-19 and under the 4 alternative scenarios with COVID-19—Scenario 1: 2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020; Scenario 2: Scenario 1 followed by a 10% reduction in daily physical activity in the summer from June to August; Scenario 3: Scenario 2 followed by 2-month school closure in September and October; and Scenario 4: Scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December. RESULTS: Relative to the control scenario without COVID-19, Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 were associated with an increase in the mean body mass index z-scores by 0.056 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.055–0.056), 0.084 (95%CI: 0.084–0.085), 0.141 (95%CI: 0.140–0.142), and 0.198 (95%CI: 0.197–0.199), respectively, and an increase in childhood obesity prevalence by 0.640 (95%CI: 0.515–0.765), 0.972 (95%CI: 0.819–1.126), 1.676 (95%CI: 1.475–1.877), and 2.373 (95%CI: 2.135–2.612) percentage points, respectively. Compared to girls and non-Hispanic whites and Asians, the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity was modestly larger among boys and non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, respectively. CONCLUSION: Public health interventions are urgently called to promote an active lifestyle and engagement in physical activity among children to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on unhealthy weight gains and childhood obesity.
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spelling pubmed-72501292020-05-27 Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model An, Ruopeng J Sport Health Sci Special topic on Physical activity during the COVID-19 global pandemic PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States led to nationwide stay-at-home orders and school closures. Declines in energy expenditure resulting from canceled physical education classes and reduced physical activity may elevate childhood obesity risk. This study estimated the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity. METHODS: A microsimulation model simulated the trajectory of a nationally representative kindergarten cohort's body mass index z-scores and childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control scenario without COVID-19 and under the 4 alternative scenarios with COVID-19—Scenario 1: 2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020; Scenario 2: Scenario 1 followed by a 10% reduction in daily physical activity in the summer from June to August; Scenario 3: Scenario 2 followed by 2-month school closure in September and October; and Scenario 4: Scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December. RESULTS: Relative to the control scenario without COVID-19, Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 were associated with an increase in the mean body mass index z-scores by 0.056 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.055–0.056), 0.084 (95%CI: 0.084–0.085), 0.141 (95%CI: 0.140–0.142), and 0.198 (95%CI: 0.197–0.199), respectively, and an increase in childhood obesity prevalence by 0.640 (95%CI: 0.515–0.765), 0.972 (95%CI: 0.819–1.126), 1.676 (95%CI: 1.475–1.877), and 2.373 (95%CI: 2.135–2.612) percentage points, respectively. Compared to girls and non-Hispanic whites and Asians, the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity was modestly larger among boys and non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, respectively. CONCLUSION: Public health interventions are urgently called to promote an active lifestyle and engagement in physical activity among children to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on unhealthy weight gains and childhood obesity. Shanghai University of Sport 2020-07 2020-05-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7250129/ /pubmed/32454174 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2020.05.006 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Shanghai University of Sport. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special topic on Physical activity during the COVID-19 global pandemic
An, Ruopeng
Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title_full Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title_fullStr Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title_full_unstemmed Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title_short Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
title_sort projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the united states: a microsimulation model
topic Special topic on Physical activity during the COVID-19 global pandemic
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7250129/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32454174
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2020.05.006
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