Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19

BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Varghese, Chris, Xu, William
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Letter to the Editor
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7250769/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32507662
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2020.05.003
Descripción
Sumario:BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide a model to quantify the scenario in which these government-level interventions were not placed. Our models predict these strict social distancing measures caused a 79% and 61% reduction in the daily cases of COVID-19 across Australia and New Zealand respectively. CONCLUSION: This provides both evidence and impetus for governments considering similar measures in response to COVID-19 and other pandemics.

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