Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19

BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Varghese, Chris, Xu, William
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Letter to the Editor
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7250769/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32507662
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2020.05.003
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author Varghese, Chris
Xu, William
author_facet Varghese, Chris
Xu, William
author_sort Varghese, Chris
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide a model to quantify the scenario in which these government-level interventions were not placed. Our models predict these strict social distancing measures caused a 79% and 61% reduction in the daily cases of COVID-19 across Australia and New Zealand respectively. CONCLUSION: This provides both evidence and impetus for governments considering similar measures in response to COVID-19 and other pandemics.
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spelling pubmed-72507692020-05-27 Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19 Varghese, Chris Xu, William Infect Dis Health Letter to the Editor BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide a model to quantify the scenario in which these government-level interventions were not placed. Our models predict these strict social distancing measures caused a 79% and 61% reduction in the daily cases of COVID-19 across Australia and New Zealand respectively. CONCLUSION: This provides both evidence and impetus for governments considering similar measures in response to COVID-19 and other pandemics. Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020-11 2020-05-27 /pmc/articles/PMC7250769/ /pubmed/32507662 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2020.05.003 Text en © 2020 Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Letter to the Editor
Varghese, Chris
Xu, William
Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title_full Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title_fullStr Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title_short Quantifying what could have been – The impact of the Australian and New Zealand governments’ response to COVID-19
title_sort quantifying what could have been – the impact of the australian and new zealand governments’ response to covid-19
topic Letter to the Editor
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7250769/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32507662
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2020.05.003
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