Influences of landscape change and winter severity on invasive ungulate persistence in the Nearctic boreal forest

Climate and landscape change are drivers of species range shifts and biodiversity loss; understanding how they facilitate and sustain invasions has been empirically challenging. Winter severity is decreasing with climate change and is a predicted mechanism of contemporary and future range shifts. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) expansion is a continental phenomenon across the Nearctic with ecological consequences for entire biotic communities. We capitalized on recent temporal variation in winter severity to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of invasive deer distribution in the Nearctic boreal forest. We hypothesized deer distribution would decrease in severe winters reflecting historical climate constraints, and remain more static in moderate winters reflecting recent climate. Further, we predicted that regardless of winter severity, deer distribution would persist and be best explained by early seral forage subsidies from extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We applied dynamic occupancy models in time, and species distribution models in space, to data from 62 camera traps sampled over 3 years in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Deer distribution shrank more markedly in severe winters but rebounded each spring regardless of winter severity. Deer distribution was best explained by anthropogenic landscape features assumed to provide early seral vegetation subsidy, accounting for natural landcover. We conclude that deer dynamics in the northern boreal forest are influenced both by landscape change across space and winter severity through time, the latter expected to further decrease with climate change. We contend that the combined influence of these two drivers is likely pervasive for many species, with changing resources offsetting or augmenting physiological limitations.