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Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Furceri, Davide, Hannan, Swarnali A., Ostry, Jonathan D., Rose, Andrew K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
Descripción
Sumario:The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.