Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Furceri, Davide, Hannan, Swarnali A., Ostry, Jonathan D., Rose, Andrew K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
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author Furceri, Davide
Hannan, Swarnali A.
Ostry, Jonathan D.
Rose, Andrew K.
author_facet Furceri, Davide
Hannan, Swarnali A.
Ostry, Jonathan D.
Rose, Andrew K.
author_sort Furceri, Davide
collection PubMed
description The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.
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spelling pubmed-72553162020-05-28 Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries() Furceri, Davide Hannan, Swarnali A. Ostry, Jonathan D. Rose, Andrew K. J Policy Model Article The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified. The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020 2020-04-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7255316/ /pubmed/32834234 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009 Text en © 2020 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Furceri, Davide
Hannan, Swarnali A.
Ostry, Jonathan D.
Rose, Andrew K.
Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title_full Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title_fullStr Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title_full_unstemmed Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title_short Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
title_sort are tariffs bad for growth? yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
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