Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

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We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jombart, Thibaut, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Russell, Timothy W., Jarvis, Christopher I., Gimma, Amy, Abbott, Sam, Clifford, Sam, Funk, Sebastian, Gibbs, Hamish, Liu, Yang, Pearson, Carl A. B., Bosse, Nikos I., Eggo, Rosalind M., Kucharski, Adam J., Edmunds, W. John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: F1000 Research Limited 2020
Materias:
Method Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32518842
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
Descripción
Sumario:We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

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