Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

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We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be...

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Autores principales: Jombart, Thibaut, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Russell, Timothy W., Jarvis, Christopher I., Gimma, Amy, Abbott, Sam, Clifford, Sam, Funk, Sebastian, Gibbs, Hamish, Liu, Yang, Pearson, Carl A. B., Bosse, Nikos I., Eggo, Rosalind M., Kucharski, Adam J., Edmunds, W. John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: F1000 Research Limited 2020
Materias:
Method Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32518842
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
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author Jombart, Thibaut
van Zandvoort, Kevin
Russell, Timothy W.
Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Abbott, Sam
Clifford, Sam
Funk, Sebastian
Gibbs, Hamish
Liu, Yang
Pearson, Carl A. B.
Bosse, Nikos I.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Kucharski, Adam J.
Edmunds, W. John
author_facet Jombart, Thibaut
van Zandvoort, Kevin
Russell, Timothy W.
Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Abbott, Sam
Clifford, Sam
Funk, Sebastian
Gibbs, Hamish
Liu, Yang
Pearson, Carl A. B.
Bosse, Nikos I.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Kucharski, Adam J.
Edmunds, W. John
author_sort Jombart, Thibaut
collection PubMed
description We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
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spelling pubmed-72559102020-06-08 Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths Jombart, Thibaut van Zandvoort, Kevin Russell, Timothy W. Jarvis, Christopher I. Gimma, Amy Abbott, Sam Clifford, Sam Funk, Sebastian Gibbs, Hamish Liu, Yang Pearson, Carl A. B. Bosse, Nikos I. Eggo, Rosalind M. Kucharski, Adam J. Edmunds, W. John Wellcome Open Res Method Article We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool. F1000 Research Limited 2020-04-27 /pmc/articles/PMC7255910/ /pubmed/32518842 http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1 Text en Copyright: © 2020 Jombart T et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Method Article
Jombart, Thibaut
van Zandvoort, Kevin
Russell, Timothy W.
Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Abbott, Sam
Clifford, Sam
Funk, Sebastian
Gibbs, Hamish
Liu, Yang
Pearson, Carl A. B.
Bosse, Nikos I.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Kucharski, Adam J.
Edmunds, W. John
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title_full Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title_fullStr Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title_full_unstemmed Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title_short Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
title_sort inferring the number of covid-19 cases from recently reported deaths
topic Method Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32518842
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
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