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Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858....

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Autores principales: Mizumoto, Kenji, Chowell, Gerardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7258458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32168464
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200233
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author Mizumoto, Kenji
Chowell, Gerardo
author_facet Mizumoto, Kenji
Chowell, Gerardo
author_sort Mizumoto, Kenji
collection PubMed
description Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
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spelling pubmed-72584582020-06-09 Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 Mizumoto, Kenji Chowell, Gerardo Emerg Infect Dis Research Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7258458/ /pubmed/32168464 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200233 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
Mizumoto, Kenji
Chowell, Gerardo
Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title_full Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title_fullStr Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title_full_unstemmed Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title_short Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
title_sort estimating risk for death from coronavirus disease, china, january–february 2020
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7258458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32168464
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200233
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