Neither influence nor selection: Examining co-evolution of political orientation and social networks in the NetSense and NetHealth studies

Political orientation is one of the most important and consequential individual attributes studied by social scientists. Yet, we know relatively little about the temporal evolution of political orientation, especially at periods in the life course during which individuals are forming new social relationships and transitioning to new relational contexts. Here we use Stochastic Actor-Oriented models (SAOMs) to examine the co-evolution of political orientation and social networks using two feature-rich, temporal network datasets from samples of students making the transition to college at the University of Notre Dame (i.e. the NetSense and NetHealth studies). Overall, we find a great deal of stability in political orientation, with a slight tendency for the 2011 NetSense study participants to become more conservative during their first four semesters in college, but not the 2015 NetHealth study participants. Partisanship is the best predictor of changes in political orientation, with students who identify or vote as Republicans becoming more conservative over time. Neither network influence nor selection processes seem to be driving observed changes. During this formative period, relatively stable identities such as party affiliation predict changes in political orientation independently of local network dynamics, selection processes, socio-demographic traits, and dispositional factors.