COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve

In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. Our analysis is up to May 04, 2020. South Korea, China, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany have either flattened or close to flattening their epidemic curves. USA and Japan have transitioned to a linear regi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Verma, Mahendra K., Asad, Ali, Chatterjee, Soumyadeep
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Singapore 2020
Materias:
Original Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7261423/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00104-y
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author Verma, Mahendra K.
Asad, Ali
Chatterjee, Soumyadeep
author_facet Verma, Mahendra K.
Asad, Ali
Chatterjee, Soumyadeep
author_sort Verma, Mahendra K.
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. Our analysis is up to May 04, 2020. South Korea, China, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany have either flattened or close to flattening their epidemic curves. USA and Japan have transitioned to a linear regime, while India is still in a power-law phase. We argue that the transition from an exponential regime to a succession of power-law regimes is a good indicator for flattening of the epidemic curve. We also argue that lockdowns, long-term community transmission, and the transmission by asymptomatic carriers traveling long distances may be inducing the power-law growth of the epidemic.
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spelling pubmed-72614232020-06-01 COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve Verma, Mahendra K. Asad, Ali Chatterjee, Soumyadeep Trans Indian Natl. Acad. Eng. Original Article In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. Our analysis is up to May 04, 2020. South Korea, China, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany have either flattened or close to flattening their epidemic curves. USA and Japan have transitioned to a linear regime, while India is still in a power-law phase. We argue that the transition from an exponential regime to a succession of power-law regimes is a good indicator for flattening of the epidemic curve. We also argue that lockdowns, long-term community transmission, and the transmission by asymptomatic carriers traveling long distances may be inducing the power-law growth of the epidemic. Springer Singapore 2020-05-31 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7261423/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00104-y Text en © Indian National Academy of Engineering 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Article
Verma, Mahendra K.
Asad, Ali
Chatterjee, Soumyadeep
COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title_full COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title_fullStr COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title_short COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
title_sort covid-19 pandemic: power law spread and flattening of the curve
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7261423/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00104-y
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