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Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters

With multiple virus epicenters, COVID‐19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to C...

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Autores principales: Khosrawipour, Veria, Lau, Hien, Khosrawipour, Tanja, Kocbach, Piotr, Ichii, Hirohito, Bania, Jacek, Mikolajczyk, Agata
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7262316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32297980
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25883
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author Khosrawipour, Veria
Lau, Hien
Khosrawipour, Tanja
Kocbach, Piotr
Ichii, Hirohito
Bania, Jacek
Mikolajczyk, Agata
author_facet Khosrawipour, Veria
Lau, Hien
Khosrawipour, Tanja
Kocbach, Piotr
Ichii, Hirohito
Bania, Jacek
Mikolajczyk, Agata
author_sort Khosrawipour, Veria
collection PubMed
description With multiple virus epicenters, COVID‐19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID‐19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID‐19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID‐19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID‐19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance.
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spelling pubmed-72623162020-06-01 Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters Khosrawipour, Veria Lau, Hien Khosrawipour, Tanja Kocbach, Piotr Ichii, Hirohito Bania, Jacek Mikolajczyk, Agata J Med Virol Research Articles With multiple virus epicenters, COVID‐19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID‐19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID‐19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID‐19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID‐19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-04-28 2020-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7262316/ /pubmed/32297980 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25883 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Medical Virology published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Khosrawipour, Veria
Lau, Hien
Khosrawipour, Tanja
Kocbach, Piotr
Ichii, Hirohito
Bania, Jacek
Mikolajczyk, Agata
Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title_full Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title_fullStr Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title_full_unstemmed Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title_short Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters
title_sort failure in initial stage containment of global covid‐19 epicenters
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7262316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32297980
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25883
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