Mountain goat survival and mortality during a period of increased puma abundance in the Black Hills, South Dakota

We investigated survival and cause-specific mortality for a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population during a period when the puma (Puma concolor) population was growing in the Black Hills, South Dakota, 2006–2018. We obtained survival data from 47 adult goats (n = 33 females, n = 14 males). Annual survival varied from 0.538 (95% CI [0.285–0.773]) to 1.00 (95% CI [1.00–1.00]) and puma predation was the primary cause-specific mortality factor over a 12-year period. Cumulative hectares of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) disturbance was a covariate of importance (w(i) = 0.972; β = 0.580, 95% CI [0.302–0.859]) influencing survival. To our knowledge, this is the first account of puma being the primary mortality factor of mountain goats over a long-term study. The Black Hills system is unique because we could examine the expanded realized niche of puma in the absence of other large carnivores and their influence on mountain goats. We hypothesize that puma were being sustained at higher densities due to alternate prey sources (e.g., white-tailed deer; Odocoileous virginianus) and this small population of mountain goats was susceptible to predation by one or several specialized puma in the Black Hills. However, we also hypothesize a changing landscape with increased tree mortality due to insect infestation provided conditions for better predator detection by goats and increased survival. Alternatively, open canopy conditions may have increased understory forage production potentially increasing mountain goat survival but we did not evaluate this relationship. Survival and mortality rates of mountain goats should continue to be monitored as this small population may be highly susceptible to population declines due to slow growth rates.