Identifying latent subgroups of children with developmental delay using Bayesian sequential updating and Dirichlet process mixture modelling

Identifying children who are at-risk for developmental delay, so that these children can have access to interventions as early as possible, is an important and challenging problem in developmental research. This research aimed to identify latent subgroups of children with developmental delay, by modelling and clustering developmental milestones. The main objectives were to (a) create a developmental profile for each child by modelling milestone achievements, from birth to three years of age, across multiple domains of development, and (b) cluster the profiles to identify groups of children who show similar deviations from typical development. The ensemble methodology used in this research consisted of three components: (1) Bayesian sequential updating was used to model the achievement of milestones, which allows for updated predictions of development to be made in real time; (2) a measure was created that indicated how far away each child deviated from typical development for each functional domain, by calculating the area between each child’s obtained sequence of posterior means and a sequence of posterior means representing typical development; and (3) Dirichlet process mixture modelling was used to cluster the obtained areas. The data used were 348 binary developmental milestone measurements, collected from birth to three years of age, from a small community sample of young children (N = 79). The model identified nine latent groups of children with similar features, ranging from no delays in all functional domains, to large delays in all domains. The performance of the Dirichlet process mixture model was validated with two simulation studies.