Urine cell cycle arrest biomarkers distinguish poorly between transient and persistent AKI in early septic shock: a prospective, multicenter study

BACKGROUND: The urine biomarkers tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 (TIMP-2) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) have been validated for predicting and stratifying AKI. In this study, we analyzed the utility of these biomarkers for distinguishing between transient and persistent AKI in the early phase of septic shock. METHODS: We performed a prospective, multicenter study in 11 French ICUs. Patients presenting septic shock, with the development of AKI within the first 6 h, were included. Urine [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] was determined at inclusion (0 h), 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h. AKI was considered transient if it resolved within 3 days. Discriminative power was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: We included 184 patients, within a median [IQR] time of 1.0 [0.0–3.0] h after norepinephrine (NE) initiation; 100 (54%) patients presented transient and 84 (46%) presented persistent AKI. Median [IQR] baseline urine [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] was higher in the persistent AKI group (2.21 [0.81–4.90] (ng/ml)(2)/1000) than in the transient AKI group (0.75 [0.20–2.12] (ng/ml)(2)/1000; p < 0.001). Baseline urine [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] was poorly discriminant, with an AUROC [95% CI] of 0.67 [0.59–0.73]. The clinical prediction model combining baseline serum creatinine concentration, baseline urine output, baseline NE dose, and baseline extrarenal SOFA performed well for the prediction of persistent AKI, with an AUROC [95% CI] of 0.81 [0.74–0.86]. The addition of urine [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] to this model did not improve the predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: Urine [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] measurements in the early phase of septic shock discriminate poorly between transient and persistent AKI and do not improve clinical prediction over that achieved with the usual variables. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02812784