Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi, Aragon, Davi Casale, Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269522/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32520235
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
Descripción
Sumario:INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

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