Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi, Aragon, Davi Casale, Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269522/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32520235
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
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author Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author_facet Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author_sort Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
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spelling pubmed-72695222020-06-05 Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi Aragon, Davi Casale Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido Rev Soc Bras Med Trop Short Communication INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts. Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020-06-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7269522/ /pubmed/32520235 http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
spellingShingle Short Communication
Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_full Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_fullStr Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_full_unstemmed Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_short Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_sort short-term forecasting of daily covid-19 cases in brazil by using the holt’s model
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269522/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32520235
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
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