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The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China
OBJECTIVES: Since January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269954/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32689711 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.113 |
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author | Tang, Biao Xia, Fan Tang, Sanyi Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Li, Qian Sun, Xiaodan Liang, Juhua Xiao, Yanni Wu, Jianhong |
author_facet | Tang, Biao Xia, Fan Tang, Sanyi Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Li, Qian Sun, Xiaodan Liang, Juhua Xiao, Yanni Wu, Jianhong |
author_sort | Tang, Biao |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: Since January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult. METHODS: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases. RESULTS: Results show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. CONCLUSIONS: The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7269954 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72699542020-06-05 The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China Tang, Biao Xia, Fan Tang, Sanyi Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Li, Qian Sun, Xiaodan Liang, Juhua Xiao, Yanni Wu, Jianhong Int J Infect Dis Article OBJECTIVES: Since January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult. METHODS: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases. RESULTS: Results show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. CONCLUSIONS: The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020-07 2020-06-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7269954/ /pubmed/32689711 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.113 Text en © 2020 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Tang, Biao Xia, Fan Tang, Sanyi Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Li, Qian Sun, Xiaodan Liang, Juhua Xiao, Yanni Wu, Jianhong The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title | The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title_full | The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title_fullStr | The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title_full_unstemmed | The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title_short | The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China |
title_sort | effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the covid-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in china |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269954/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32689711 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.113 |
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