Vulnerability of African Rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus, Fabaceae) natural stands to climate change and implications for silviculture in West Africa

Pterocarpus erinaceus is a native tree species of the Guineo-Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones where natural stands are under constant pressure and heavily exploited for timber, animal feeding and others uses. A part from the overexploitation, climate change could also become a serious threat to the species natural distribution. For that purposes, this study aims to assess the vulnerability of P. erinaceus potential niche to climate change within its natural distribution area in West Africa. Niche predictions are based on 6,981 natural occurrence of the species and 19 global bioclimatic variables available through WorldClim. The future niche of the species is predicted according to three concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) of BC model for 2050 and 2070, thanks to Maxent software. P. erinaceus is currently reported from Senegal to Cameroon. Its potential niche covers the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Dahomey gap on approximately 17.42% of the total area of these countries. In general, the niche of the species is not sensitive to climate change, regardless of the climate scenario and the year. Compared to its initial niche, the niche of the species will increase from 22.33% to 43.61% in 2050 and from 27.12% to 53.61% in 2070. However, this ecological expansion observed mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, will be associated with a considerable decrease in the Sahel and central Nigeria. This study shows the importance of promoting the development of innovative silvicultural strategies for the extension and restoration of natural stands of P. erinaceus in order to meet sustainably the timber needs of the West African region. It helps also to strengthening the roles of natural forests in providing ecosystem services and mitigating climate change effects.