Conclusions and Recommendations

Brexit represents an unprecedented moment for the European integration project. Despite the evident difficulties in assessing the impact of the still ongoing process on the cladenstine activity of illicit tradde, all in all, the potential effects of Brexit on illicit tobacco trade in the UK could be rather modest. One thing which emerges with certain clarity is that just as in many other policy areas, the control of the illicit trade of tobacco by the UK will depend ultemately on the Brexit scenario negotiated with EU. In the event of a leaving the single market, while losing economically on many ends, the UK would retain higher policy flexibilites. While still bound by the ITP, this may mean greater speed and flexibility in learning and improving upon existing global or regional norms in this field to its own benefit.