Delay discounting of compliance with containment measures during the COVID-19 outbreak: a survey of the Italian population

AIM: Unprecedented community containment measures were taken following the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. The aim of the study was to explore the self-reported future compliance of citizens with such measures and its relationship with potentially impactful psychological variables. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: An online survey was completed by 931 people (18–76 years) distributed across the Italian territory. In addition to demographics, five dimensions were measured: self-reported compliance with containment measures over time (today, at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90, and 180 days from now) at three hypothetical risk levels (10, 50, 90% of likelihood of contracting the COVID-19), perceived risk, generalized anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and relevance of several psychological needs whose satisfaction is currently precluded. RESULTS: The mean compliance scores follow a hyperbolic-like curve, decreasing over time for the lowest level of risk (10%), whilst they tend to flatten for ≥ 50% risk (90%). Significantly higher levels of anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and perceived risk were reported by women compared to men (p < 0.001 for each variable). Outdoor sports was the only need associated with the discounting rate of compliance (r(s) = − 0.08, p = 0.018). CONCLUSION: The duration of containment measures plays a crucial role in tackling the spread of the disease as people will be less compliant over time. Psychological needs of citizens impacting on the compliance should be taken into account when planning an easing of the lockdown, along with interventions for protecting vulnerable groups from mental distress.