Novel approach using serum progesterone as a triage to guide management of patients with threatened miscarriage: a prospective cohort study

Threatened miscarriage is a common gynaecological emergency, with up to 25% of women eventually progressing to spontaneous miscarriage. The uncertainty of pregnancy outcomes results in significant anxiety. However, there is currently no acceptable framework for triaging patients presenting with threatened miscarriage. We aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a novel clinical protocol using a single serum progesterone level to prognosticate and guide management of patients with threatened miscarriage. 1087 women presenting with threatened miscarriage were enrolled in the study. The primary outcome was spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks’ gestation. Among the 77.9% (847/1087) of study participants with serum progesterone ≥ 35 nmol/L who were not treated with oral dydrogesterone, the miscarriage rate was 9.6% (81/847). This did not differ significantly from the 8.5% (31/364) miscarriage rate observed in our prior studies; p = 0.566. Among women with serum progesterone < 35 nmol/L who were treated with dydrogesterone, the miscarriage rate was 70.8% (170/240). Our novel clinical triage protocol using a single serum progesterone level allowed both effective risk stratification and a reduction in progestogen use with no significant adverse pregnancy outcomes. This protocol, based on a single serum progesterone cutoff, can be readily adapted for use in other healthcare institutions.