A prognostic nomogram integrating novel biomarkers identified by machine learning for cervical squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) represents the fourth most frequently diagnosed malignancy affecting women all over the world. However, effective prognostic biomarkers are still limited for accurately identifying high-risk patients. Here, we provided a combination machine learning algorithm-based signature to predict the prognosis of cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: After utilizing RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from 36 formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples, the most significant modules were highlighted by the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA). A candidate genes-based prognostic classifier was constructed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and then validated in an independent validation set. Finally, based on the multivariate analysis, a nomogram including the FIGO stage, therapy outcome, and risk score level was built to predict progression-free survival (PFS) probability. RESULTS: A mRNA-based signature was developed to classify patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different PFS and overall survival (OS) rate (training set: p < 0.001 for PFS, p = 0.016 for OS; validation set: p = 0.002 for PFS, p = 0.028 for OS). The prognostic classifier was an independent and powerful prognostic biomarker for PFS in both cohorts (training set: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.13, 95% CI 0.05–0.33, p < 0.001; validation set: HR = 0.02, 95% CI 0.01–0.04, p < 0.001). A nomogram that integrated the independent prognostic factors was constructed for clinical application. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was able to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year PFS accurately, and it performed well in the external validation cohorts (concordance index: 0.828 and 0.864, respectively). CONCLUSION: The mRNA-based biomarker is a powerful and independent prognostic factor. Furthermore, the nomogram comprising our prognostic classifier is a promising predictor in identifying the progression risk of CSCC patients.